Members Highlights: authored by Ayman Elshkaki
- Article:Copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050
- Source Information
- Original Title:Copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050
- Authors: Ayman Elshkaki, T.E. Graedel, Luca Ciacci, Barbara K. Reck
- Affiliations:Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University.
- Keywords:Copper; Resources; Energy; Scenario analysis; Dynamic modelling
- Source Link:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300802
- Editor’s Comments
This study presents a vital and forward-looking analysis of the global copper cycle, projecting critical challenges for resource sustainability and energy systems mid-century. By integrating copper dynamics into the established GEO-4 scenarios, the authors provide a pioneering framework for understanding the future pressures on this essential industrial metal.
The methodological approach is particularly significant. Developing the first comprehensive, scenario-based projections for copper demand, supply, and associated energy use represents a substantial advancement. Extending the GEO-4 framework to incorporate detailed material flows allows for a nuanced exploration of how different global development pathways (Market First, Security First, Sustainability First, Equitability First) will dramatically influence copper resource constraints.
The paper’s findings highlight critical copper supply challenges requiring policy action. Projections indicate cumulative copper demand by 2050 will likely exceed current Reserve and Reserve Base estimates in most scenarios and approach the Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) limit. Notably, the Equitability First scenario exhibits the highest copper demand, surpassing the Market First pathway. The analysis also shows copper production could consume up to 2.4% of global energy demand by 2050—an eightfold increase from current levels.
The study concludes current production trends are unsustainable in key producing nations, and supply shortages are projected for co-mined metals (Te, Se, Ag, Co, Mo) vital for green technologies. The authors propose policy responses: a dual strategy of increasing supply through enhanced recycling and exploration, and reducing demand via improved material efficiency, technological redesign (e.g., copper-free distribution), and reduced dissipative use. Quantified efficiency gains in primary production are projected to save 0.5% of global energy demand.
In conclusion, this paper contributes to resource economics, industrial ecology, and sustainable energy planning. Its scenario framework, projections of copper scarcity and production energy intensity, and proposed policy measures provide insights for managing copper resources essential for global development and the energy transition. Securing necessary copper requires significant changes in its use, reuse, and management.
- Original text summary
This study presents a comprehensive scenario analysis of global copper demand, supply, and associated energy requirements through 2050, revealing critical resource sustainability challenges. By integrating copper dynamics into the UNEP GEO-4 scenarios—Market First, Security First, Sustainability First, and Equitability First—the research projects a 275–350% surge in copper demand by mid-century, with the highest demand driven by socioeconomic equity transitions (Equitability First). Key findings indicate that cumulative copper demand will exceed current Reserves and Reserve Base estimates in most scenarios, depleting nearly all Ultimate Recoverable Resources. Concurrently, energy consumption for copper production may reach 1.0–2.4% of global energy demand (versus 0.3% today), while supply shortages loom for companion metals (Te, Se, Ag, Co, Mo) co-mined with copper. The study advocates for dual supply-demand strategies: boosting recycling and mineral exploration, alongside accelerating material efficiency, copper-free energy infrastructure, and renewable technology adoption to mitigate resource and environmental risks.
Fig. 1. (a) Copper use in different industrial sectors, 1980–2010 ; (b) The historical supply of copper from secondary sources; (c) The percentage contribution of secondary sources to total copper supply; (d) Copper historical production and resources by country or region.
Fig. 2. (a) The anticipated decrease of ore grade as a function of cumulative production; (b) The amount of energy as a function of ore grade required to produce a ton of copper by pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy.
Fig. 3. (a) Global copper demand for the four GEO-4 scenarios; (b) fractional uses of copper in 2010, 2025, and 2050 for the four GEO-4 scenarios; (c) the supply of copper from primary sources in the four scenarios; (d) The supply of copper from secondary resources in the four scenarios. The MF results are not visible, as they are essentially identical to those of PF and are obscured by the PF results.
Fig. 4. Global cumulative copper production compared to Reserves, Reserve Base, Ultimate Recoverable Resources, and Remaining Resources. The vertical dashed lines indicate the years when specific scenarios surpass the copper Reserves and Reserve Base estimates. The color scheme is the same as for Fig. 3.
Fig. 5. (a) Cumulative copper production, historical (540 Tg from 1920 to 2010) and generated by the four scenarios, 2010–2050; (b) Copper ore grades mined, 2010–2050 under the four scenarios; (c) the energy required to produce copper by hydrometallurgy in the four scenarios, 2010–2050; (d) the energy required to produce copper by pyrometallurgy in the four scenarios, 2010–2050; (e) total energy required to produce copper in the four scenarios, 2010–2050. The dashed lines indicate the inclusion of energy efficiency improvements.
Fig. 6. Global cumulative copper production compared to reserves, reserve base, ultimate recoverable resources, and remaining resources, for scenarios in which half the copper used to conduct electricity is replaced over the 2010–2050 time period by a non-metallic conductor. The vertical dashed lines indicate the years when specific scenarios surpass the copper Reserves and Reserve Base estimates. The color scheme is the same as for Fig. 3.
- Original text information
ABSTRACT
To a set of well-regarded international scenarios (UNEP’s GEO-4), we have added consideration of the demand, supply, and energy implications related to copper production and use over the period 2010–2050. To our knowledge, these are the first comprehensive metal supply and demand scenarios to be developed. We find that copper demand increases by between 275 and 350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is not Market First (a “business as usual” vision), but Equitability First, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. These copper demands exceed projected copper mineral resources by mid-century and thereafter. Energy demand for copper production also demonstrates strong increases, rising to as much as 2.4% of projected 2050 overall global energy demand. We investigate possible policy responses to these results, concluding that improving the efficiency of the copper cycle and encouraging the development of copper-free energy distribution on the demand side, and improving copper recycling rates on the supply side are the most promising of the possible options. Improving energy efficiency in primary copper production would lead to a reduction in the energy demand by 0.5% of projected 2050 overall global energy demand. In addition, encouraging the shift towards renewable technologies is important to minimize the impacts associated with copper production.
- This issue’s editor
Mr. Jijie SHEN, Doctoral candidate at Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), focuses on the research of natural resources economics.